DIE SIEDLER VON CATAN

by DAVE FARQUHAR

The following is a record of a three player game. The first twelve turns have been recorded in detail. The three players involved were Reggie Red, Bertie Blue and Olly Orange. You wouldn't believe how long it took me to find three such appropriate contestants. Willie White refused to take part. The die rolls and moves are genuine. Not a single error has been changed to protect the innocent.

SET-UP

R:

I must get wood and brick early. BNM gives two wood, and one brick, but the probabilities aren't too hot.

There's good woodland at E(8). I'll build in the 3-1 port at EF. The beneficial trading is important.

B:

There are only three brick producing areas. G, in the north, is a 9. The wheat in P is a 6. If I build GPF I can move towards the 2-1 wheat port, giving me good export potential. I don't like to start so close to Red, but what the heck!

O:

Right, let's keep well away from those two. Let them carve up the north. I get two builds now. Let's go for JKR, and AML. Gives a good spread I of numbers and commodities. I'll worry about iron ore later.

My initial aim is to build a village in K port (3-1), so let's build the road that way. The other will lead westward. This gives a good chance of building a long road, as the prospective route between the villages can't be broken.

B:

The two commodities I'm missing are wood, and ore. I can get both of those at DNO. It also fits quite nicely with my first village, and threatens to cut Red off. Nothing personal. The road can go towards the pasture at C. The 6 die roll should be a good producer, if I can get a village there.

R:

I don't like the look of this. Let's go across the far side of the island. I have never tried a two port strategy. I'll give it a try with the 2-1 sheep port at IJ. If I'm lucky with early dice rolls I have two export opportunities. I realise I may have left my production dangerously low.

Initial Hand:

Red: 2 wood, sheep, wheat.

Blue: brick, sheep, wheat, 2 ore, wood.

Orange: 2 brick, wood, sheep, 2 wheat.

Turn 1

R:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

It's always good to build a road. I'd better break out while I have the chance. I'll offer a wood for brick. Good, Orange has taken it. So I can trade one wood, and one brick for road at OF.

B:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

I've got iron ore coming out of my ears. I'm just one wheat short of a town. On the other hand, road building is vital early on. Should I try to join my villages, where Red is threatening to split them? No, let's build a road towards the ore port at C. The export potential is too good to miss. Plus a bit of progress. That's always useful, and keeps down the cards in my hand. A knight would help towards the 2 VPs, or I may even get road building. I did!

O:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

Red wanted a brick, in exchange for wood. Looked good to me. Red must be feeling well out of it already. I'd like to build at the 3-1 port at K. I've got the makings of the village, but need a brick now to get me there. I'll see if anyone will swap me for ore, or two wheat. If not I'll trade four wheat for one. No go, so its four for one. Build road K, and village at the port. No cards left.

Turn 2

R:

Die Roll 11. Red: wheat; Blue: --; Orange: brick.

OK, not another 5 please. Wheat for me! Nothing I can do at present.

B:

Die Roll 7. Move thief.

Right, the first 7 of the game, so I can move the thief. Let's put him in J, threatening wood production for Red and Orange. Now I can use my progress card to lay roads at FP and PO. That effectively cuts off Red's port. And I'm only two sections away from the longest road victory point card!

O:

Die Roll 12. Red: --; Blue: --; Orange: --.

Nothing doing this turn.

Turn 3

R:

Die Roll 11. Red: wheat; Blue: --; Orange: brick.

What a disaster. I'm being out-produced as was always likely having built in two ports. And now I'm cut off. I've got three wheat for my 3-1 port. Plus I'll export two sheep for a wood. Road at JQ. Whoopee!

B:

Die Roll 9. Red: --; Blue: brick; Orange: brick.

Another road I think, at O/desert. Pay one brick, and one wood.

O:

Die Roll 10. Red: sheep; Blue: sheep; Orange: wheat.

Let's see if anyone wants one of my three bricks for wood. No takers.

Turn 4

R:

Die Roll 7. Move thief.

Let's hit Blue with the thief. Into the bricks at G. Orange trades me one brick for two wheat, and I'll export two sheep for a wood. Road at JQ. See if I can expand on that side of the island.

B:

Die Roll 6. Red: --; Blue: wheat; Orange: --.

I could go for progress again, but would like to build a town. Let's wait.

O:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

I've four wheat and two bricks. Export three wheat for a wood, and build a road at KR.

Turn 5

R:

Die Roll 6. Red: --; Blue: wheat; Orange: --.

Nothing doing.

B:

Die Roll 10. Red: sheep; Blue: sheep; Orange: wheat.

I can afford my town now. FGP. Good production possibilities.

O:

Die Roll 12. Red: --; Blue: --; Orange: --.

Blue's looking strong. Red looks well out of it. I'm doing OK, but nothing for this turn.

Turn 6

R:

Die Roll 8. Red: wood; Blue: --; Orange: sheep, sheep.

I get a bit of wood, but can do nothing with it.

B:

Die Roll 7. Move thief.

Thief over to the lush pastures of K. (Sheep probability of 8)

O:

Die Roll 6. Red: --; Blue: wheat, wheat; Orange: --.

I've two wheat, two sheep and a brick. No obvious combinations. I'd like to build two roads before Blue gets his one, but not much chance of that. I'll bide my time, and hope to build two in one go.

Turn 7

R:

Die Roll 2. Red: --; Blue: --; Orange: --.

Help!

B:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

Another 5! Here we go again, ore for me, wheat for Orange. I've two ore, two sheep and two wheat - two progress. Go for it! A knight and a library. I'd better show that.

O:

Die Roll 7. Move thief.

Blue leaps ahead with four VPs - town (2), village (1) and a library (1). Even worse, he's about to get two more for the longest road. I'm on three, Red two. Okay, thief to P, where I hope he'll cut off the supply of wheat to Blue.

Turn 8

R:

Die Roll 7. Move thief.

Move the thief. Big deal.

B:

Die Roll 6. Red: --; Blue: (2 wheat stolen); Orange: --.

Damn. That pesky thief has stolen both wheat. Call out the knights! Send him back to K. At the same time, I get one of Orange's cards -- wheat.

O:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

Well, the thief wasn't gone for long.

Turn 9

R:

Die Roll 6. Red: --; Blue: wheat, wheat; Orange: --.

I may have very little else, but I think I'm the only one with any wood. I'll trade one with Blue for ore, and wheat. I've got to do something. Time for a bit of progress -- road building. Great!

B:

Die Roll 11. Red: --; Blue: --; Orange: brick.

Okay. I obtained wood from Red. Now I just want brick to complete my road. I rolled an 11, which was brick for Orange. That wasn't in the script.

O:

Die Roll 8. Red: wood; Blue: --; Orange: (2 sheep stolen).

I've got two bricks. So I need two wood. For that I have three wheat to export, and two sheep. The two sheep I would have gained have just been stolen. Anyone give me one wood for two sheep? No, I thought not. I'll hang on, but am in danger of losing cards soon.

Turn 10

R:

Die Roll 9. Red: --; Blue: brick, brick; Orange: brick.

I'll build my two roads, QR, desert R.

B:

Die Roll 6. Red: --; Blue: wheat, wheat; Orange: --.

Two wheat for me! I have four wheat, two brick and one wood. So I'll build road ON, which gives me a seven length highway, and two VPs. At least for now. Pass me the VP card!

O:

Die Roll 8. Red: wood; Blue: --; Orange: (2 sheep stolen).

Two sheep stolen again. I have three bricks, three wheat and two sheep. But what can I do with them? It's too late to take the road VPs, and I've nowhere to build a village. The commodities are no good for a town. I must use em , or lose em. I've got to get rid of that thief. Let's give Red two bricks for one wood. Build road BM. Provides a site for a village later.

Turn 11

R:

Die Roll 2. Red: --; Blue: --; Orange: --.

I agree to give Orange a brick for a sheep. Now I can build a village, MR! It's in two brick producing areas, although with low probabilities. But it's a village...and it's mine!

B:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

Iron ore again. I must build a town here, at O. It'll make a fortune.

O:

Die Roll 6. Red: --; Blue: wheat, wheat; Orange: --.

Bugger it. Four wheat and a sheep. I'll give three of them for one ore, and progress. A knight. Right, it's off with the thief next turn, guess where to.

Turn 12

R:

Die Roll 5. Red: --; Blue: ore; Orange: wheat.

Hell's Bells! I'm skint.

B:

Die Roll 8. Red: wood; Blue: --; Orange: (2 sheep stolen).

I have six wheat, two ore and one brick. Export four wheat for one ore, and build Oretown! (ODN)

O:

Die Roll 11. Red: wheat; Blue: --; Orange: brick.

Off to Ore Town, thief.

Turn Twelve Round-up

And there we must leave them, playing quietly in the sunshine.

Red has three VPs for villages. Two cards in his hand. Although he has two good ports, he does not have the goods to supply them. Red has been struggling for the whole game. Has a longest road section of four. Looks hopeless.

Blue has seven VP -- two towns (4), longest road (2), library (1). One knight. Blue is in a strong position, fencing in Red. At present he has no trade goods, but usually has plenty. On the down-side, the thief is in Oretown, and Blue has no port. Two more knights, and a village would be enough for a win.

Orange Has three VPs for villages. His road network is scattered, but could be joined for seven. This would then need to be lengthened to exceed Blue's. Orange has one knight, and a good port. Two trade goods.

It looks all over. Orange could make a fight of it, but would be struggling. Red has never recovered from a weak set-up.

Game End Comments

The game actually ended on Blue's turn twenty-two. At this point he had accumulated the three knights required for the two VP knights card. His ten points were made up of: two towns (4), three villages (3), longest road (2), most knights (2) and a library (1).

There was a brief interlude, where fortunes temporarily changed. Blue was receiving very little production and suddenly, on turn fifteen, Red (yes Red) extended his road system at a tangent, and built a village at O/desert/P. This had the effect of cutting Blue's road, while achieving the new longest road for Red!

Eventually, though, the game swung back Blue's way.

Having written down all the die rolls, and production, I decided to graph them. I did this in three ways. Firstly, the die rolls. This, as expected, was a sort of bell shape. However, the peak was at five and six, not seven. This meant that while the fourteen sixes and eleven fours produced an awful lot of wheat and wood, the thief would hang around for ages. The set-up with brick appearing in two `nine' areas also led to large production.

The analysis of total production showed it ranged from fifty-one wheat cards, to twelve ore. Blue had all the ore.

Finally the analysis of produce by player illustrated why Blue won. He received sixty-five cards, compared to Orange's forty-five, and Red's thirty-eight.

Dave Farquhar